Heading into the final week of the 2020 presidential campaign, virtually all the polls continue to show former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump. But polls are hardly an exact science, as we saw four years ago.
In 2016, the polls were mostly wrong. They were wrong in part because pollsters polled Americans who voted in the last two elections, missing those who hadn’t voted in several years — or ever — but came out to support Trump.
Today, many of President Trump’s supporters and surrogates see history repeating itself. They argue the pollsters aren’t accounting for the so-called hidden Trump vote, a bloc of voters comprised of Americans who secretly support the president but won’t say so — until Election Day.
These voters, the argument goes, either fear the social cost of publicizing their support for Trump or just refuse to share their political preferences with pollsters.
This begs two obvious questions: Is there really a hidden Trump vote, and is it large enough to make a difference in the election?
I discussed these questions on the latest episode of my podcast, “Outloud with Gianno Caldwell.” My guest, Pete Hegseth, the best-selling author and co-host of “Fox & Friends Weekend,” explained compellingly why he believes there’s a significant Trump vote, making his case in a way that most people have not considered.
There’s another expert who agrees with Hegseth’s analysis. Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly also sees the president winning reelection — and for similar reasons.
“I see the president winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said recently, referring to Electoral College votes. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House.
“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote. There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily,” he continued.
“These people are more hesitant to participate in polls. So, if you’re not compensating for this, you’re not going to get honest answers.”
Cahaly is not just any pollster. He’s one of the few in the business whose polling showed Trump leading Hillary Clinton in key battleground states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania, in 2016. Trump went on to shock the world by winning both states and the election.
Read the rest at: Trump Hidden Voters