Up until this weekend, the Democratic victory narrative has been this: Dems will outperform in early and mail in voting. Republicans, leerier to mail-in voting, will opt for in person voting and will outperform on election day. However, in the end, the in-person voting will not be enough to overcome the massive early voting numbers by the Democrats.
This weekend that narrative shattered in some key states. It’s absolute panic.
Politico’s lead story today contains this revealing quote about many anxiety-ridden memos in Democratic offices:
Michigan is chief among the Democrats’ worries. With 25% of the total vote in, compared to 2016, Republicans have a slim advantage heading into Election Day. It’s expected a rush of ballots from Republicans, leerier of mail voting, will be cast in-person on Nov. 3.
As Democratic strategists pore over early numbers, a clear and unexpected trend is emerging: The lock-downs is suppressing the college vote. On college campuses across America, during a normal election year, many of the social events are tied to campaign events for mostly Democratic candidates. Not this year with COVID-19 lock-downs.
Also, a general complacency of an inevitable Biden win has gripped campuses. As it turns out, many college outreach initiatives have been cancelled in Michigan, including virtual rallies and door-to-door canvassing, due to Biden’s lead and concerns over social distancing. The result? College students have not turned out to vote, yet.
In, Philadelphia, home to Temple U, Drexel, UPenn and LaSalle Univ, the 18-29 vote has gone from 23.1% in 2016 to 12.5% in 2018, to 11.7% in 2020.
In Dane county, WI, home to UW Madison and one of America’s most liberal college towns, the 18-29 vote has declined from 8.0% in 2016 to 7.3% in 2020. This came as a big surprise. 27% of the total 2016 vote is already in, and the WI youth vote was expected to be energized.
Read the rest at: Panic