Turnout Dooms Moore’s Alabama Senate Campaign

Republican Roy Moore’s inability to get Republicans to the polls was a key in his defeat Tuesday to Democrat Doug Jones.  Moore had a dropoff of approximately 52 percent in votes compared to President Trump in 2016 pending the final vote totals.

A breakdown of the election results shows Moore not only failing to keep significant amount of Trump voters but even had him losing in counties where Trump carried a significant amount of the vote.

One of the most stark examples of this came from Talladega County.  In 2016, President Trump won the county 20,614 to 12,121.  Roy Moore LOST Talladega County 9,967 to 9,698.  So not only did the county swing Democratic, Moore lost almost 50% of the number of voters that President Trump obtained in his win of the state.

Marshall County also shows a huge drop in Republican voter turnout.  The President had a dominant win over Hillary Clinton in 2016, 29,233 to 4,917.  Tonight, Moore only won 13,828 to 5,134.  Over 14,000 less voters tonight for Moore while the Democrat actually gained over 200 votes.

The trend across the state shows deep Republican drops in support.  Moore lost both Madison and Mobile counties which President Trump had won by roughly 27,000 votes and 22,000 votes respectively by margins in the tens of thousands.

Other counties that Moore didn’t win that Trump won in 2016:  Tuscaloosa, Lee, Clarke, Chambers, Choctaw, and Conecuh.  In some of those counties Moore had 20,000 fewer votes than Trump.

If the final vote totals for the race match the results from election night, a turnout of just 3% more for Moore from the Republican base would have resulted in Republicans holding the seat.

The impact of the low turnout by Republicans is further highlighted by exit polling that showed African Americans turned out in greater numbers for this election than for President Obama’s re-election in 2012.  Jones also had almost all registered Democrats in lock step behind him with polling showing as much as 98% of registered Democrats voting for Jones.